Suggestions
for Obtaining a Consensus on a BPX
Dr. Jay Jayakumar
Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory
February 13, 2002
Organization for
Investigation of BPX options and Snowmass process:
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A model for developing community
consensus, scoping studies and finally advocacy of a given project is available
from High Energy Physics. With humble approaches, cap in hand if you will,
we should seek the advice of the High Energy Physics community. From my
supercollider experience I can clearly state that the whole high energy
physics community was proud of having successfully initiated such a large
construction at a time when 10 billion dollars really meant a real lot
of money. It may be advisable to include an influential HEP individual
in this group or even in the Snowmass panel.
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Also, HEP community in its decision
making process includes leaders in engineering issues and works closely
with machine designers in coming up with a basic concept, much before a
conceptual engineering design is obtained. The engineers of fusion community
have too long been "downstairs" and as suggested by another contributor
to this page, the engineers and information technologists should be brought
on board right away. However, there would be a clear bias from engineers
since they would wish for engineering challenges and therefore may favor
a large machine.
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A high degree of documentation
should be mandated in Snowmass studies, because ideas are the more valuable
commodity, particularly at this time.
Mechanism
for invigorating Snowmass participants and obtaining their consensus:
I realize that this is the
most challenging issue and this group is already taking some specific steps.
I would like to add the following comments and suggestions:
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The consensus building requires
first the involvement and a firm commitment from the leadership. I would
frankly state that for too long fusion research has been affected significantly
by parochial interest. I plead with the leaders of fusion energy science,
plasma physics, fusion technology and particularly the Department of Energy
to commit to bringing a consensus within one year. (Even one year, it appears
will be late, since the ITER process needs a shorter time scale for decision
making). Without this commitment from the leadership, no effort will be
fruitful. Perhaps the community issues group can presume to instigate the
leadership and provide them with necessary tools. Therefore the first goal
of snowmass should be to get a written commitment from the leadership as
above.
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The consensus has to be based
on the simple fact that we have made significant progress in fusion and
fusion science over many decades and it is high time we made a foot print
in world history with a demonstration of ignition or steady state power
or with an earth-shaking discovery in fusion plasma science. I hope that
it is not already too late, but without such milestones, the markers that
point to notable progress are lacking in fusion research.
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A corollary of this basis is
that the leadership should declare unequivocally that Snowmass is and will
be the prime if not the only process of negotiating a consensus and initiating
action. This commitment alone will invigorate Snowmass participation significantly.
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While at the present time the
role of the Community Issues group appears to be limited to listening,
poll taking and perhaps a mild persuasion, this group should be vested
with specific executive powers in building consensus. This harks back to
the commitment from the leadership.
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Specifically for the upcoming
Snowmass meeting, this group should build a hierarchy of questions, starting
from the question - do we believe that fusion research is important? -
to the question - who would like to do what?.
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A time table for deciding on
BPX should be set in this Snowmass meeting.
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Snowmass is setup to consider
four options, (1) ITER (2) FIRE (3) Ignitor (4) do nothing. Snowmass should
invite proposals on a preferred option and mode of participation (much
like scientific proposals) from individuals and whittle the number down
to 5 or 6. The proposals should include how the BPX would be built and
how the basic sciences program will be funded. Finally, we need to elect
protagonists for each of these proposals and have them present their proposals
to the fusion plasma leadership (FESAC Action Panel, for example) and come
up with a solution.
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If we presume that the FESAC
action panel is the vehicle for translating community's wishes into action
for carrying out a parallel BPX program and a robust basic sciences program,
it follows that the panel should develop some muscle in anticipation of
the required effort. The FESAC panel should energetically work on getting
a commitment from the government that its wishes will be translated into
government action without significant modification.
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It is even conceivable that
the FESAC action panel should become something else which has more than
an advisory function, such as a steering committee. This committee would
also be an advocacy group for the fusion community, representing the community's
wishes to the congress and the executive and negotiating with international
partners.
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Finally, if I may wish for the
farthest moons, a consortium of science and technology communities should
work on getting guarantees for long term funding of large approved projects
and prevent it from being subject to whims of politics.
Issues
for Community Consensus:
There are three basic issues
confronting and dividing the community:
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Would BPX threaten the vigor
of the basic plasma science program and if separately funded from additional
money, would any BPX cost overrun threaten the basic science program?
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Should US fusion community sign
on to a US machine or an international machine?
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Finally which machine is technically/scientifically
superior for the stated goals of the US program?
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How can University researchers
participate in a large facility specifically an international facility?
Basic
Science Program vs BPX:
From a pure science/engineering
perspective the tension between a basic program and a BPX can be resolved.
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First the exception: Study of
alternates, where funds should be provided to continue this research in
a fashion unaffected by a BPX experiment. The potential for a breakthrough
is a low probability but is low risk/high reward which justifies the continuation
of these approaches. The alternates are essential to nurture independent
and innovative groups. This effort can be constrained to be within 5% of
the fusion budget.
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With a well designed and well
instrumented BPX, the addressing of basic plasma issues can be maximized.
In admitting this, a liberal definition should be applied on what constitutes
basic plasma science. The questions that cannot be addressed in the BPX
(a) may not be relevant (b) may not be urgently needed to be addressed
and can be postponed to another machine when funding streams permit new
machine(s).
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Only urgent basic science issues,
that cannot be addressed in the BPX should be addressed in the basic sciences
program. An analysis of the urgency of these basic plasma questions is
required. The determination of the urgency should be based on the following:
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Can the resolution of the basic
science issue affect the design, operation and performance of the BPX expeditiously.
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Can the resolution of the basic
science issue add significantly to the understanding of plasma physics
and nuclear fusion and affect strategies within a period TBD?
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Can the discovery of the basic
science phenomenon be highly prestigious?
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Does the resolution of the basic
science issue have major industrial/market applications within the next
10 years?
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Does the study of the basic
science phenomenon have significant educational/training benefit that is
not available elsewhere.
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The basic science part of the
BPX funding should be clearly marked and the sum of the BPX portion of
the basic science funding and direct basic science funding should be fixed
at an agreed level with allowance for inflation.
National
vs International Machine:
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In order for the above proposal
to work, the cost of BPX cannot be allowed to overrun so that the basic
science program funding can be guaranteed (within the vagaries of government
cuts from agreed upon plans). This requires that BPX be built with an international
collaboration where US would provide a significant portion, but fixed dollars.
All cost overruns should be borne by the partners. There are perhaps alternatives
to this proposal where contingency funding would be available in advance
and unspent dollars would be spent in basic plasma science program.
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From a technical point of view,
an international program is much better for several reasons, (a) an international
program would make it difficult for congress to make ad hoc funding cuts
so that we would be assured of completing the construction (b) my ITER
experience clearly demonstrated to me that our international partners will
help us in times of difficulty since we have a stake in each others success
(c) the atmosphere is ripe for more global involvement not only for the
rich nations but we can expect participation from a larger number of countries.
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It is conceivable that some
fusion community members are uncomfortable with having to deal with foreign
collaborators and would therefore avoid foreign collaborations. From my
experience, this is only born of laziness and can be overcome. However,
there are some genuine concerns such as speed of decision making and perhaps
some national interest that might be jeopardized. But, the overall benefits
from an international collaborations make it worthwhile that we struggle
and even lose some of those battles.
Technical
Merits of specific machine:
This is a topic for other
groups to discuss but this Community Issues group should impress upon the
technical merit investigators that intangibles, such as problem-solving
skills, availability of specific components/materials should be taken into
account.
University
Participation in a large (international) facility:
There is perhaps a well placed
concern about how University researchers in the US can participate in a
large experimental facility, particularly in an international facility.
But there is a ton of experience in organizing this. For decades, High
Energy Physics personnel have been participating in Detector collaborations
abroad and there is a working model available there. In addition, at a
smaller level, the rather fruitful and sometimes remarkable
collaboration of Universities in astronomy and astrophysics observations
is an inspiring example.